For the first time in Brazilian history, the Minister of Defense Fernando Azevedo and the commanders of the Armed Forces – the Army’s Edson Pujol, the Navy’s Ilques Barbosa, and the Air Force’s Carlos Bermudez – have all resigned at once. Ordered by Bolsonaro, the unexpected change in the military high command occurred in the wake of other ministerial changes. There was the departure of Ernesto Araújo, a supporter of anti- communist and far-right conspiracy theorist Olava de Carvalho, from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the arrival of congresswoman Flávia Arruda from the center Liberal Party (PL) to the head of the Secretary of Government; and the inauguration of Anderson Torres, a friend of the Bolsonaro family, as the new Minister of Justice and Public Security. Last week saw the announcement of the departure of Eduardo Pazzuelo from the Ministry of Health and his replacement by Marcelo Queiroga, a doctor linked to Flávio Bolsonaro.
To be correctly understood, this improvised ministerial reform must be assessed in the context of the health, economic and social crisis that gets worse by the day. With the pandemic out of control and the collapse of the hospital system, Brazil has reached a weekly moving average of 3,000 deaths per day. The trend for the coming weeks is only getting worse, and there could soon be a collapse of the funeral system. Already over 322,000 lives have been officially lost to COVID-19. Along with the catastrophe of the pandemic, the economy is suffering from a new fall into recession, and the social crisis continues to spread throughout the country with the return of hunger and a rapid increase in unemployment, poverty, and misery. In this terrible scenario, the Bolsonaro government is becoming weaker in both civil society (social classes) and the political-institutional sphere (parties, institutions, and political leaderships). The STF decisions that have overturned Lula’s convictions, the letter from bankers and big business leaders attacking the government’s calamitous management of the pandemic, and the public threat of impeachment made last week by the President of the Chamber of Deputies Artur Lira; are all unequivocal demonstrations of this process of the political weakening of Jair Bolsonaro. The enormous international isolation of the government, which lost its main point of external support with the defeat of Trump, is also important to note. In addition, opinion polls reveal the growing rejection of the government across all social strata, from those with the lowest incomes to those with the highest purchasing power.
First and foremost, these ministerial reshuffles express the growing political and social weakness of the government. At the same time, they expose and enhance the conflicts between the various wings that it is composed of. The ‘centrão’ (center party) wing, led by the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, demands changes in the handling of the pandemic and seeks to occupy ministries and other positions. The ultraliberal wing of Paulo Guedes, which is linked to finance capital, clashes with the ‘centrão’ to defend the fiscal austerity that was put into question by Congress’s budget bill. In turn, Bolsonaro is picking a fight with the Armed Forces command to try and align the active military to the defense of the government. In short, there is a crisis within the government itself, which may take a leap forward and have a tendency to worsen the multifaceted national crisis.
For all the reasons listed above, Bolsonaro at this moment does not have the strength – neither political nor social – to carry out a (self)-coup, and thus provoke an institutional rupture. The crisis within the Armed Forces command reveals that the current military leadership wants to distance itself from the government, which is increasingly being held responsible in Brazil and around the world for the historic catastrophe that the country is experiencing. On the other hand, the necessary conditions for immediate impeachment are not in place. Financial capital and big business leaders released their letter with demands and harsh criticism of the government, but did not call for Bolsonaro’s head. The ‘centrão’ have raised their tone and made public threats, but they prefer to fight for ministerial posts and maintain Bolsonaro’s parliamentary support, at least for now. The working class and the poor are increasingly dissatisfied with Bolsonaro, but the very high health risk situation makes mass actions in the streets difficult at this time. Finally, the government, even though more depleted and worn down, still preserves a considerable amount of support in society and within political and institutional sectors.
Due to the gravity and dynamics of the national crisis, it is possible that the political crisis will evolve in leaps and bounds in the coming months, perhaps even opening up conditions for the fall of the government. The left must be alert to this critical situation, and act jointly and decisively for the overthrow of Bolsonaro.
‘Fora Bolsonaro’ (Bolsonaro Out) cannot wait until 2022
The ongoing genocidal pandemic, which strikes at the black and poor population in particular, the economic recession, the rampant social crisis, and repeated authoritarian threats all demand the overthrow of Jair Bolsonaro. The country cannot live with such barbarism and destruction until 2022. The best – and most effective – approach would be to call for mass demonstrations in the streets for the immediate overthrow of Bolsonaro. But the high danger of infection from COVID-19, in a situation of hospital system collapse, demands that crowds be avoided for the time being. But the left cannot sit idly by waiting for the moment when actions with millions in the streets are possible.
It is necessary to intensify the campaign to get Bolsonaro out of office in every possible way, both in Congress and throughout society, by pressuring all social sectors, parliamentary deputies, state governments, and institutions to impeach Bolsonaro. The fight to overthrow this genocidal ideologue must be accompanied by the defense of the emergency income of R$600 (US$105), the broadening out of vaccination programs, the adoption of a national lockdown, job stability, financial aid to small businesses, and the freezing of basic food item and fuel prices.
It is also fundamental that the left engages in all actions of solidarity with those who need it most, whether they are promoted by social movements, unions, neighborhood associations, the black movement, the women’s movement, parliamentarians, or others. The actions of direct struggle, like those carried out by the union movement, the student movement, and the Homeless Workers’ Movement (MTST) on March 24th, are also important.
Finally, it is important to emphasize the responsibility of the main leaders of the Brazilian left at this time, and that of Lula in particular, given their importantm influence among working people. Yes, there must be discussion around the project and the program of the left for the 2022 elections. But there is an immediate task: the fight to overthrow this genocidal government, to save lives and social and democratic rights. Lula must engage in the defense of ‘Fora Bolsonaro Já’ (Bolsonaro Out Now!).
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