A majority of Brazilians reject Bolsonaro, and Lula is the best-placed name to challenge him

Bolsonaro’s rejection rate among the population has hit 62%, and he would lose to his main opponents – Lula, Dória, Mandetta, and Ciro – if the second round of presidential elections were held today.

Editorial staff
Montagem: Pedro Ravasio/EOL

A new Atlas poll, released by El País on Friday 30 July, has revealed that 62% of Brazilians now reject Jair Bolsonaro. According to the survey conducted between 26 and 29 July, if the elections were held today, the president would lose to his main opponents in the second round. These include São Paulo Governor João Doria (Brazilian Social Democracy Party, PSDB), who technically ties with Bolsonaro, but with a slight bias advantage would win by 40.6% to the president’s 38.1%.

Former President Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) has extended his lead over Bolsonaro since the previous survey. Lula would win by 49.2% to 38.1% in a possible second round, with an estimated 12.8% of null or blank votes. In May, the lead of the ‘petista’ (PT member) over the President was only 4.7%.

In every scenario, Bolsonaro loses

According to the new Atlas poll, along with Lula and Dória, any runoff election would see Bolsonaro lose to Ciro Gomes of the center-left Democratic Labor Party (PDT) by 43.1% to 37.7%; former Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta of the center-right Democrats (DEM) by 42.9% to 37.5%; and former São Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad (PT) by 41.9% to 38.4%.

Bolsonaro breaks the rejection record

A record 62% of voters now reject Bolsonaro, compared to his approval rating of 36%. This is a five percentage point increase from May when the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPI) into the pandemic began.

All the polls show the same thing

Another poll conducted by Futura Intelligence in partnership with Modalmais and released on 28 July shows that Lula would win 51.3% of the vote in the second round of presidential elections, while the current president would gain 32.9%.

If the second round was between Lula and Ciro Gomes (PDT), the ‘petista’ would win 45.5% of votes against 25.4% for the former governor of Ceará. The survey also simulated a third scenario, a runoff between Ciro and Bolsonaro, in which the advantage goes to the former by 46.6% to 33.1%.

In a CNT/TDMA poll released earlier this month, a possible second round election between Lula and Bolsonaro would see the former president win with 52.6% compared to 33.3% for the presidential Planalto Palace’s current occupant (with an estimate of 11.5% of votes being blank or null).

The Paraná Research Institute also suggests that the ‘petista’ has risen in voting intentions from 40.2% in June to 43.3% in July, while Bolsonaro has fallen from 40% to 38.2% (with null and blank votes falling slightly to 15% from 15.3% in June).

This article is an English translation of “A maioria dos brasileiros rejeita Bolsonaro e Lula é o nome mais forte para enfrentá-lo”, [https://esquerdaonline.com.br/2021/07/30/a-maioria-dos-brasileiros-rejeita-bolsonaro-e-lula-e-o-nome-mais-forte-para-enfrenta-lo/], Esquerda Online (EOL), 30/07/2021.


Translation: Bobby Sparks