There is a challenging conjuncture in the country. Despite the increasing pressure from the Supreme Court on Bolsonaro and other coup plotters, the far-right maintains enormous political strength, returning to the streets. Although economic indicators are positive, with GDP growth and a decrease in unemployment, there is a decline in Lula’s popularity, revealing increased popular dissatisfaction. Even though the left won the presidential election, there is an undeniable difficulty in social mobilization within its camp. While the progressive change project won in the vote, there are many obstacles to progress in a Congress dominated by the ‘centrão’ and facing the constraints imposed by the fiscal framework.
The fact is that the recipe adopted so far by the government falls short, unable to diminish the influence of the far-right in society and boost Lula’s approval. The danger of Bolsonarism remains alive, even with the defeat of the coup attempt on January 8th and ongoing legal proceedings. Strengthened by the rally on Paulista Avenue in February, Bolsonaro recently called for a coup-supporting demonstration in Rio de Janeiro on April 21.
Held hostage in Congress by Artur Lira’s blackmail, the government is betting all its chips on Fernando Haddad’s conservative economic management, which pleases the market, and on Alexandre de Moraes’ firm action against Bolsonaro and the coup plotters. But this has not been enough. It is worth noting that the deterioration in the government’s evaluation, if not reversed in time, may negatively affect the left in the battle against Bolsonarism in the municipal elections. Aware of the complicated situation, the government is internally debating course correction.
What direction to take?
What should be the new orientation of the Lula government? There are sectors on the left that argue that, given the adversities, it is necessary to increase concessions to the ‘centrão’, the financial market, the military, and agribusiness.
This assessment underlies some government policies that contribute neither to increasing government popularity nor to the necessary confrontation with Bolsonarism. For example, fiscal adjustment, the proposal for zero pay increase for civil servants, Lula’s silence on the 60th anniversary of the 1964 coup, and the encouragement of public-private partnerships resulting in privatizations go against the program that elected Lula. This strategy of permanent concessions to the right disregards the importance of building mobilizations in defense of popular measures, against which Lira’s ‘centrão’ and the far-right act systematically in Congress.
We think differently. Faced with the dangers posed in the conjuncture, we believe that a shift in direction, a new strategy, is necessary. The first and most important line of change must be the reorientation of economic policy, which is stifled by the fiscal framework.
Concrete and robust improvements need to be delivered to the working people, in order to regain popular support and advance over the Bolsonarist base. More measures like the ‘Pé de Meia’ program, announced this week, which will benefit poor high school students, are needed.
On May 1st, Lula could announce a new real increase in the minimum wage, a raise in the Bolsa Família benefit, a salary increase for striking civil servants, and an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000.
On May 1st, Lula could announce a new real increase in the minimum wage, a raise in the Bolsa Família benefit, a salary increase for striking civil servants, and an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000. An effective plan to lower the price of basic food items would also be very important. These measures would be very well received by the working class, especially the lower-income segments.
The second aspect of change refers to the adoption of an active line by the Lula government in promoting political and ideological awareness campaigns among the people. This includes, among other things, building popular mobilization to support the approval of progressive social and democratic measures. One of the challenges in the struggle for the consciousness of the masses is, for example, maintaining and expanding the social majority favorable to the imprisonment of Bolsonaro and the generals involved in the attempted coup. No amnesty!
Competing with the people against Bolsonarism
While Bolsonaro acts to preserve his intact, cohesive, and mobilized social base, the government remains completely distant from the struggle on the streets. Acting merely at the institutional level, it ends up reinforcing the current demobilization framework in the left field and the lack of political cohesion in the support social base. Lula has not called for a popular rally so far. Furthermore, while Bolsonarism maintains maximum charge in its efficient and wide communication network, the government is timid in the political and ideological struggle, having a weak and outdated communication policy.
Today’s Brazil is very different from the period of the first PT governments, when the opposition was led by the weak PSDB. Now there is an influential and angry far-right, with solid social implantation and international connections. This fascist force mobilizes its social base around well-defined political and ideological flags and organizes it daily on social networks, in evangelical churches, and in barracks. Bolsonarism acts in the institutional and electoral spheres, but does not give up the ideological struggle in society and the direct struggle on the streets.
Therefore, it is a serious mistake to believe that only with small economic improvements and the action of the STF will it be possible to defeat the far-right and ensure Lula’s reelection.
Therefore, it is a serious mistake to believe that only with small economic improvements and the action of the STF will it be possible to defeat the far-right and ensure Lula’s reelection. A turn to the left is necessary, with concrete measures aimed at the working people, intense ideological struggle, and the construction of popular mobilization.”
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