“Acknowledge the fall, but don’t get discouraged.
Get up, shake off the dust and overcome.”
[ Reconhece a queda, mas não desanima.
Levanta, sacode a poeira e dá a volta por cima]
Paulo Vanzolini
1. Sunday’s results caused alarm in most people on the left. Frustration is a bitter feeling. There is a lot of anxiety, even anguish, among us. Something understandable, because the polls generated the expectation of victory in the first round. It’s time to lick the wounds. Time for cold blood. Lula received 48.43% of the valid votes. Only 1.57% were left to decide it in the first round. That was the most important information conveyed by the vote. But that was not all: a reactionary “avalanche” came as a surprise. Realistic analyzes warned that nothing was decided, and we could have a second round. Everything will depend on a lucid tactical line and a revolutionary fighting disposition from the activism. The negotiation for the support of Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes, tomorrow, is legitimate. But three main threats put at risk victory on October, 30. The “we already won” or the “we already lost”, instead of the call to fight. The reduction of the campaign to the “romanticization of the past”, instead of a serious commitment to concrete proposals for the future. The danger of a “turn to the center”, instead of an implacable polarization against Bolsonaro and the fascist threat.
2. Bolsonaro’s vote was much higher than the polls predicted, reaching 51 million votes, and winning in the state of São Paulo; Castro’s election in Rio de Janeiro took place in the first round; Tarcísio went to the second round as favorite in São Paulo, and Onix Lorenzoni in Rio Grande do Sul; the neo-fascist wing of the far right elected Mourão, Damaris, and the astronaut to the Senate; Sergio Moro and Deltan Dallagnol won in Paraná; Salles and Pazuello are champions of votes, and the Bolsonarist party elected 99 federal deputies. The general elections also confirmed that Lula is much bigger than the left itself, even considering the allies from bourgeois parties that called for the vote. Those who defended Bolsonaro won in 9 states in the first round (AC, DF, GO, MG, MT, PR, RJ, RO and TO). The candidates for governor who supported Lula won in 6 (AP, CE, MA, PA, PI, RN). This outcome will matter, too. Yes, six million votes is a massive difference, but nothing is guaranteed. Let’s be serious. The danger is “real and immediate”. Any underestimation of Bolsonaro will be a fatal mistake. To lessen the severity of the dispute would be unwise. Sunday showed that there is uncertainty.
3. Bolsonaro benefited from a drag of useful votes from the other candidacies, in the last two days before Sunday, although smaller than in 2018. Bolsonarism revealed, once again, that is widely spread in the mass of the bourgeoisie and the middle class and it has national capillarity, especially in small towns, in the Central West and South regions, where the weight of agribusiness is greater. Bolsonaro’s vote was much broader than its neo-fascist movement in the Southeast and even in the Northeast, even though his hegemony is in “deep” Brazil. He confirmed his popular audience in segments organized by neo-Pentecostal Churches in the extreme outskirts of large cities, especially in Rio de Janeiro. The far right collects the social rancor of the middle strata, but feeds and responds, ideologically, to the deep sexist, racist, homophobic prejudices that remain intact.
4. Even after the health catastrophe of the pandemic, after the explosion of misery with tens of thousands condemned to hunger, after the increase in social inequality with falling wages, uninterruptedly, in the last four years, after all records of fires were broken in the Amazon, after the coup threats, anyway, the full tragedy. September, 7th had already revealed on the streets the ultra-reactionary social shock wave from bolsonarism. The lesson from this first round is that the country remains fractured, socially and politically. Neo-fascism is a mass political movement, and it will not stop tormenting us if Lula wins the elections. We must be aware that Bolsonaro represents the threat of a historical defeat: the demoralization of a generation. A cold wind blew through this Sunday, but the danger of a “Siberian winter” remains in the air.
5. Neither “already lost” nor “already won”. Angry pessimism won’t help. Self-deceptive optimism won’t help either. Militancy is maximum activism, not passive quietism. It is decisive to believe that if we fight till the end, we can win. The moral strength of the left-wing militancy and social movement activism can make a difference. These last six years have not been in vain. Lula won in the Northeast and in most big metropolitan regions: São Paulo, Porto Alegre, Salvador, Belém. We only lost in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte and Brasília. Lula won the vote of the vast majority of the poorest, women, youth and the Northeast. The abstention of 20% was the average of the last elections. It seems unlikely that it will decrease. The reduction of blank and null votes was already very significant and perhaps will even increase. But there is still the possibility of dispute among unionized and organized workers who earn between two and five minimum wages, and they are many millions. Lula and the command of the Front must not reduce the campaign to nostalgia for the past. We need to present concrete life-changing proposals. Raising the minimum wage, public works in order to create millions of jobs, strengthening SUS [the national public health system], expanding racial quotas in education and public services, reviewing the labor reform, repealing the “spending ceiling”, taxes on the big fortunes, raising the exemption from income tax, zero deforestation, defense of indigenous population reserves, women’s and LGBTQIA+ population’s rights, not giving in to the pressure of turning to the center. We can win. Without denialism, with cold blood, the time is to fight till the end. Less than four weeks is a time interval to occupy the streets of the country, dialogue in the workplace, talk in the neighborhoods, dispute the extended family, mobilize the activism and win.
Comentários