What is this lockdown that we are advocating? Given the terrible escalation of the pandemic in Brazil, with its explosion in the number of deaths and the collapse of health systems in numerous states, ‘Esquerda Online’ (Left Online) published an editorial on 27 February defending the need for an immediate national lockdown. The situation deteriorated even further a few days later, with huge growth in new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, and with health systems moving closer to total collapse. The need for a national lockdown has been advocated by renowned scientists and physicians such as Margareth Dalcolmo, Miguel Nicolelis, Natália Pasternak, and Átila Iamarino. Some containment measures have been adopted by state and municipal governments, but these are still largely insufficient.
Therefore, we consider it absolutely vital that the essential need for a national lockdown must be reinforced, one with a guaranteed immediate implementation of emergency income, job stability, and financial aid to small businesses. In this editorial, we will outline and explain in detail aspects of the immediate national lockdown policy that we advocate, and address some of the doubts and criticisms that have arisen among the social movements.
1 – What is a national lockdown and what is its objective?
A lockdown is not a night curfew, and neither is it a restriction on bar and pub opening hours – these are one-off and insufficient measures of mitigation. An effective lockdown implies the establishment of rigorous measures to ensure an effective reduction of all levels of movement and circulation throughout the country by means of a total stoppage of all non-essential activities. These are much tougher measures, but because they are far more comprehensive, they also produce much better results and do so in less time. That is why a lockout is only effective if it is organized nationwide. We have not had a national lockdown at any time in Brazil, and even the measures taken at the state and municipal level were insufficient and piecemeal.
“A national lockdown is an initiative that will save tens of thousands of lives and gain time for more decisive measures, such as the vaccination campaign”
A lockdown does not aim to “slightly decrease” the number of cases but to radically reduce them. In several countries, a lockdown, coupled with border closures, extensive testing, and contact tracing, has halted community transmission. With its 100 million inhabitants, Vietnam has gone six months without registering any deaths. Sadly, we are far removed from a situation like this, and it would be unrealistic to expect an end to community transmission. But a nationwide lockdown, along with the expansion of testing on a mass scale, can radically reduce the rate of COVID-19 transmission, relieve the pressure on health systems and prevent their collapse. It is important to stress, therefore, that the national lockdown will not end the pandemic, but it is an initiative that will save tens of thousands of lives and gain time for more decisive measures, such as the vaccination campaign. Besides this, the development of the pandemic in Brazil now represents the greatest risk in the world for the generation of new virus mutations that could have a global impact, including the ability of these new strains to reduce the efficacy of the vaccines already being used.
2 – How long would it last?
It is not possible to determine the exact duration of a national lockdown in advance. However, considering the experiences of lockdowns in other countries, the current pace of COVID-19 transmission, and the length of the virus replication cycle, it can rightly be said that a lockdown is not effective if it lasts less than fifteen days. Given the severity of the situation, a longer time frame of three to four weeks would most likely be necessary.
3 – What would be locked down?
In Brazil, containment measures have always been undermined due to the proliferation of exceptions. For example, there is the maintenance of the on-site functioning of churches even when other establishments are closed. However, for the national lockdown to be effective – and therefore not to last longer than necessary – there can be no exceptions, except those strictly related to the daily survival of the population. In commerce, only markets and pharmacies should remain open. In industry, the activities of plants and facilities that are not part of the production chain of essential goods must be suspended. Thus, the pharmaceutical, hospital supply, food, and energy industries would have to keep function, while automotive manufacturing, for one example, would stop. At this point, given the gravity of the situation, the more exceptions mean the greater the tragedy will continue to be.
4 – What assistance measures are needed so that the population can adhere to the lockdown?
The interruption of economic activity for a minimum of fifteen days will inevitably have an impact on the living conditions of the overwhelming majority of the population, especially the most precarious sectors of the working class. For this reason, a support package must be immediately adopted before any lockdown, one which consists of emergency aid of R$600 [US$105] to all who need it (and twice the amount for single mothers), a guarantee of job stability throughout the pandemic, and non-refundable loans to small businesses (along with the cancellation of the rent paid by small business for March and April). These measures should be financed by means of three basic mechanisms: (a) the immediate repeal of the budgetary ‘Teto dos Gastos’ (Spending Ceiling) for the expansion of emergency public investments; (b) the suspension of the payment of public debt to big creditors for the financing of the public health system; and (c) taxing of large fortunes and the private banks to guarantee emergency income and financial aid for small business.
Apart from economic support, it is also necessary to combat all forms of the violence that can be exacerbated by a lockdown. This is especially the case for domestic violence against women, which increased significantly in 2020 with less comprehensive restrictions on movement. Easily accessible channels for reporting and the operation of rapid mechanisms of protection for victims must be ensured.
5 – What coercive measures would be adopted?
No national lockdown policy can be successful if it relies primarily on elements of coercion. This is especially the case given the character of the racist actions of the Brazilian State’s forces of law and order, which have led to a veritable genocide of black youth in recent decades. Therefore, the key elements for the implementation of the lockdown must be a broad campaign to inform the population and the package of economic measures presented above. Repressive measures should be directed at business establishments that ignore the rules of the lockdown, not individuals. But considering that there are groups willing to actively sabotage any containment policy for political motivations, it is necessary to provide for the establishment of fines.
6 – Do the political conditions for a lockdown exist?
Undeniably, the biggest obstacle to the effectiveness of a national lockdown in Brazil is the federal government, which should be the main coordinator of its implementation. Bolsonaro is continuing his genocidal policy of pitting life against the economy, and denying the evidence that the best way to boost the economy is to control the pandemic. His boycott strikes at all the measures of social isolation, and even the vaccination campaign, which continues at a much slower pace than is needed. It must therefore be acknowledged that the political conditions for national lockdown are not easy.
Despite all this, there are many governors, who must manage the chaos within their state health systems, who are intensifying their criticisms against the federal government’s management of the pandemic. This opens up an important opportunity to exert pressure for a national lockdown. Without forgetting the solidarity initiatives of food and hygiene item distribution that are already underway, left-wing political parties and social movements need to organize a united campaign for a national lockdown. Its target should be both the federal government and the state governments which can act to pressure Bolsonaro, and even coordinate a lockdown through the National Council of Health Secretaries (CONASS). This body, which has repeatedly met and put forward insufficient criticism of the federal policy, released an important document a few days ago [1 March] demanding national measures that, although not constituting a lockdown, are already an advance compared to what has occurred to date. If the federal government is the big obstacle, it is necessary to create ways to impose the much needed measures in opposition to it.
This article is an English translation of “Seis perguntas sobre o lockdown nacional”, Esquerda Online (EOL), 05/03/2021. Translation: Bobby Sparks
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